362 isn't necessarily a match-winning score, but it is a lot more than either Dhoni or Smith expected when South Africa was inserted. That they got there was due to the brilliance of Kallis, and then when India were stuttering at 28/2 in what would soon become perfect batting conditions, there was quite some alarm in Indian hearts. (For more details pre-tea, please see other reports in my blog).
The post-tea session saw Gambhir & Tendulkar add 93 valuable runs, and most importantly not lose a wicket as we ended the day at 142/2. At 27 overs India were a fairly brisk 98/2. The last 23 overs they crawled, adding just 44 runs -- not a single boundary was struck, as Harris -- who had gone for 18 runs in his first 4 overs -- was allowed to bowl 7 more overs for just 11 runs. This was key as Smith could rotate his fast bowlers from the other end.
I would have liked a bit faster scoring once we got to 98/2 quickly (though the end result was very close to my 143/3 prediction, at the start of tea), but can't argue with the safety first approach. Still, the match is wide open. If South Africa can get any sort of lead (say 50 or more), India will find it hard to chase down 270+ on Day 5. On the other hand, if India can get a lead of about 100, they will be in the driver's seat.
The slow scoring means that India -- assuming they can avoid a collapse and get through lunch only losing one wicket -- well after tea. This means that an Indian win is unlikely and an Indian defeat or a draw looms as the most likely option (barring the unlikely possibility of India batting through D3 and past lunch on D4).
Rough odds:
India: 20%
Draw:40%
South Africa: 40%
Bharat
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