Updated RFP (Request for Predictions): What's the par 4th innings target for South Africa?

India are effectively 166/4 at the end of Day 2.  What is your estimate for

a) The 50-50 target for South Africa -- i.e, the score at which the odds of a South African win and Indian win are exactly equal?
b) The target India will actually set
c) The final result

I think 270 is par (100 more runs or so) and India will struggle to get there.  The first hour will be key -- Steyn's groin won't allow him to go all out for longer than 3-4 overs.  If India lose 2 wickets in that span, they are done.

My head says India will set 230 and lose by 4 wickets, but my heart say 300 and a heart-stopping 40 run victory as VVSL enhances his 3rd & 4th innings rep as a crisis man!

Thanks,

Bharat