Pick the Test squad for the WI tour

Test cricket is back, and so is this blog.
Actually, it is quite interesting this time, as Sehwag & Gambhir may both miss the WI tour, and possibly the England tour as well.  So who are the 8 batsman that will make the squad.

The locks, IMO are:Vijay, Dravid, Tendulkar, Laxman (Vijay is the only opener around with some Test experience).
The selectors need to pick another opener, a middle order player, and two backup batsmen.  Who do you think those will be?  With Dravid's newfound fragility, Tendulkar could we walking in by the 15th over,
most often that not this series...
Composition: 8 batsmen, 5 pacers, 2 spinners, 1 keeper plus one more  backup (either a keeper or spinner).
Who are the openers who did well in the Ranji?  Could a discard like Dinesh Karthik (backup keeper and opener), Wasim Jaffer, or even Parthiv Patel (who opened once) make his way back into the squad? Young Mukund impressed the heck out of me when I saw him in the Iranis.
Meanwhile the middle order swells with contenders, including the incumbents, Pujara and Raina, and re-discovered Yuvraj and Badrinath, plus the brightest young star on the Indian firmament, Mr. Tough-as-Nails himself, Virat Kohli.  At most 3 of them will be picked, and likely it should only be two, with one of the reserve bats being another opener...
Its not going to be an easy job, but hopefully we don't see any total surprises (ala Unadkat) in the squad...
Bharat

Last ODI for Tendulkar or Ponting?

Tomorrow, India and Australia face off in an elimination game for the World Cup.  A semi-final spot is on the line, but other subplot is looming.

Two of the greatest batsmen of this generation will walk out in their countries colors, and for one of them, it may well be their last ODI  game.  Certainly their last World Cup game, because neither of them will be
around 4 years from now.


Ponting, a great great Australian cricketer, most-winning World Cup captain ever, is under increasing pressure to retain his own place in the side. He has lead 2 straight World Cup campaigns, presided over a dominating dynasty, had a Bradmanesque run with the bat.  All that means naught, as his form has deserted him and his expiry date seems to be looming.  Aussies selectors have a pattern of pushing out a winning captain from the ODI team to give his anointed successor a run as ODI captain -- a prelude to leading the team for the real thing, as it were.  Just as a reluctant Mark Taylor was ousted to make room for Steve Waugh, the talismanic Waugh himself was handed his marching  orders, to allow Ponting to step in.  The selectors don't seem quite as ruthless as in times past, but there has been a lot of talk about Ponting leaving after the World Cup.  An ideal time for him to show all and sundry he isn't done, but putting together a match-winning knock against India.


Tendulkar too may leave, but under very different circumstances.  In his late 30s he still remains India's premier batsman -- the Fountain of Youth must be flowing in his backyard -- as his superb technique has allows him to continually reinvent himself to overcome everything the opposition has thrown at him.  He may choose to retire from ODI's to focus on Tests, something he has hinted at in the past -- certainly, if India win the whole thing, the temptation will be overwhelming to walk in the sunset the way Michael Jordan did, after
his championship-winning basket in the NBA finals against Utah (hopefully, without the epilogue we saw with Michael:-)  The decision is purely his, as at this time there is no pressure to leave.  Here too, the hunger to dominate the opposition he has made his name against, will push him to put together another majestic knock
from the top of the order.


Either way, tomorrow will be the last time we will see one of these giants represent his country in a World Cup.  Game on....


Bharat

ICC hands down multi-year bans to Butt, Asif, Amir

CricInfo reports http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci-icc/content/current/story/499614.html

"Salman Butt gets ten years of ineligibility, five years of suspended sentence. Mohammad Asif gets a sanction of 7 years, two years of which are suspended. Mohammad Amir gets a sanction of five years' ineligibility."

So it appears as if each of the players got 5 years ineligibility, with varying length of suspension that would kick in if the player violated any conditions.  Butt's career is over.  Asif's effectively so.  Amir will be only 23-24 when his eligibility is restored, so he could in theory still have a long career ahead of him.  The question is whether he will be able to remain cricket fit, especially if the ban prevents him from playing cricket at any reasonable level.  Also, he may be able to appeal and get his sentence reduced to something like "five years ineligibility, two years of which are suspended" which is effectively 3 years.  Still a very said tale about a resplendent talent, and the only good one can hope for is that this will serve as a salutary warning to other youth who might otherwise be tempted.

Going into a bit more detail from the ICC website http://icc-cricket.yahoo.net/newsdetails.php?newsId=13055_1296910620

The Tribunal found that the charge under Article 2.1.1 of the Code that Mr Butt agreed to bat out a maiden over in the Oval Test match played between Pakistan and England from 18 to 21 August 2010 was dismissed, whereas the charge under Article 2.4.2 that Mr Butt failed to disclose to the ICC's ACSU the approach by Mr Majeed that Mr Butt should bat a maiden over in the Oval Test was proved.

The Tribunal found that the charges under Article 2.1.1 of the Code that (respectively) Mr Asif agreed to bowl and did bowl a deliberate no ball in the Lord's Test match played between Pakistan and England from 26 to 29 August 2010, Mr Amir agreed to bowl and did bowl two deliberate no balls in the same Test, and Mr Butt was party to the bowling of those deliberate no balls, were proved.

I'm sure the Crown prosecutors would want the transcripts of the proceedings and the various depositions from the defendants -- but I'm not sure those are admissible.  After all, they would violate the right against self-incrimination. 

There is one ray of hope.  The Tribunal notes that "The Tribunal has recommended to the ICC certain changes to the Code with a view to providing flexibility in relation to minimum sentences in exceptional circumstances."

Clearly, this implies that they would have strongly considered a sentence less than the mandatory minimum (presumably 5 years ineligibility) for at least one of the defendants due to "exceptional circumstances."  Hopefully, this means Amir may get some support from the Tribunal upon appeal to get his ban reduced to less than 5 years...

Bharat

Crown charges Butt, Asif & Aamir plus Majid; Trial to start March 17

BBC News broke into their wall-to-wall coverage of the Cairo crisis to just report that the Crown prosecution service has decided to charge the 3 Pakistani players, Butt, Asif, & Aamir & their agent Majid for "conspiracy to cheat" & "conspiracy to accept corrupt payments."  Not only are the players charged, the CPS said that if they don't return to the UK, they will demand their extradition from Pakistan.

This is BIG news.  The ICC panel is due to rule tomorrow, and I wonder if they had a hint of this timing, and so delayed their announcement.  If not, maybe they will delay their ruling, because it will surely be prejudicial (one way or another) to the Crown's case.  With the World Cup just 15 days, this will dominate the headlines for a while.

Quite a turn of events.  The trial is scheduled to start on March 17 -- right in the final stages of the round-robin for the World Cup, and before the KO's.  This will certainly dominate the cricket headlines as it coincides with cricket's highest-profile event.  Whoever is orchestrating it, by announcing this just before the ICC tribunal makes its ruling, and having the trial start right in the thick of the World Cup, certainly has a keen sense of drama and a nose for timing.

Bharat

Bowlers Statistical Analysis (1 of N): Where does Steyn rank in the All Time list?

After the RSA series, I began to think about  whether Dale Steyn belongs in the discussion of ATG (All Time Great) bowlers. So the fundamental question I got was "how one would project Steyn's career?"

Steyn's stats to date bear repeating: 46 Tests, 238 wickets @ 23.2, a mind-boggling strike-rate of 40 and 5.2 wickets / match. So, the first step was to find bowlers who were "similar" to Steyn.

So, lets begin by finding pace bowlers who ended up with more than Steyn's current haul of 238 wickets.  That gives us 25+ names, so lets cull it further by restricting it to quicks who took their wickets at the rate of at least 4 wickets / match over their career.

This criterion eliminated a whole bunch of folks, including Walsh, Kapil, Pollock, Ntini, Botham, Vaas, Willis, Gillespie, and Statham. This also eliminated the incomparable Barnes who took 189 wickets in
27 Tests at 7 wickets / Test!!!! Since I've used "mind-boggling" for Steyn's 5.2 w/Test, no suitable adjective remains. Which is fine, as the goal is to find bowlers who are similar to Steyn, and Barnes isn't similar to anyone else, in the sense of Bradman.

I would like to include Pollock in the analysis at least initially as he played in very similar conditions against similar opposition, and that can be achieved by relaxing the cut-off to 3.9 wickets / Test. That adds Pollock & Courtney Walsh back into the list. This first cut of the list, leaves us with a list of 16+1 pace bowlers, ranging from the good to fabulous -- with one criterion in common; they took a lot of wickets at ~4w/Test or higher.
Ambrose, Donald, Garner, Hadlee, Holding, Imran, Lee, Lillee, Marshall, McDermott, McGrath, Pollock, Steyn, Trueman, Walsh, Waqar, Wasim
Not all of them should belong in the discussion, but lets try to find objective criteria.

So, how would one go about finding "similar" bowlers to Dale at the same stages of their career? How about looking at everyone at the 46-match stage in their career. Here are some criteria to consider:
A Bowling Average (the traditional measure of a bowlers success)
B Wickets / match (or total wickets as we are looking at the same # of Tests)
C Strike rate (deliveries / wicket)
D Overs bowled (a measure of the wear and tear on the bowler)
E Dominance score (# of 5-fers & 3x10-fers)
F PI score (courtesy Mike Holmans) = average * strike rate

Clearly some of the criteria are overemphasized (D can be computed from B & C, F from A & C) but for now, let them stay in for simplicity -- can be fixed by eliminating it and adding more weight to other criteria.  You can also argue if 3x is the right weight for a 10-fer, given that the 5-fers are double-counted in the 10-fer.  The idea isn't to get the criteria precisely right, but to create a basis for discussion.

So lets now look at each of these players at the 46 Test stage of their careers, and see where Steyn fits in
this list & find potential outliers to eliminate from the list.

A) Average: Steyn @ 23.2 is #9 of 17 flanked by McGrath & Imran -- also, at the very bottom of the list are a couple of clear outliers in Lee (31.8) and McDermott (28.2)

B) Wickets / match or (total wickets): Steyn is #1 of 17, but closely followed by Lillee, Waqar & Donald, all > 5w/Test.  Walsh is a clear outlier with only 161 wickets (3.5w/Test) and Lee @ 3.9 w/Test is below the original 4w/Test cutoff.  (Interestingly Walsh did a lot better in his last 80-odd Tests than his first 46)

C) Strike Rate: Steyn & Waqar head the list, but no real outliers with all but 4 of the list having 50+ strike rates.  This is interesting because it indicates that only Waqar & Marshall are comparable to Steyn in this
attribute.

D) Overs: Walsh with <1500 overs bowled the least (probably a factor in his longevity) and Lee, Waqar (that name again) and Steyn, all have below 1600 overs.

E) Dominance Score (5-fers + 3x 10-fers): Lillee and Waqar head the list with 32 and 31 respectively, followed by Steyn, Imran and Ambrose in a clump ahead of the pack.  Changing the 10-fer multiplier to 2, obviously changes the scores, but provides the same qualitative description and separation. (A general test to see how stable a measure is, is to tweak it somewhat and determine if it still provides a similar qualitative result.)

F) PI: Waqar, Steyn and Marshall head the list (only one's below 1000), with Lee & McDermott clear outliers, and possibly Hadlee.

So what have we learned so far.  Actually, not a whole lot: Lee & McDermott don't belong in this list which is hardly surprising news.   Steyn is near the top in all measures except average, but since all the other measures capture strike rate in some way, he figures to be on the top of the list.

Steyn seems quite similar to Waqar, and possibly Lillee and Marshall, but we will figure that out later.

Now lets look at their entire careers.  It would be good to have the ages of each bowler at their 46th Test, but I didn't have an easy way to add the data, so I'm going to use the total Tests played as a proxy.

Although Steyn's career could end in the next game he plays, it is reasonable to expect he is right now in his prime, and will play another 20-40 Tests.  So, lets eliminate the bowlers who were towards the end of their careers at the 46th Test by using total Tests played as proxy, which eliminates Holding and Garner.
So culling this list, we get a murderer's row of a dozen bowlers (no Lee, Walsh, McDermott, Holding, Garner), many of whom would be part of any discussion on "Best bowlers ever", and in fact were discussed in CricInfo's all-time XIs:

Ambrose, Donald, Hadlee, Imran, Lillee, Marshall, McGrath, Pollock, Steyn, Trueman, Waqar, Wasim

Lets look to see if Steyn belongs in this august list, which was were this discussion started.  There is NO question that he does. His average of 23.2 is "only" 8th, but better than Imran, Lillee, Wasim and Hadlee at a similar stage of their careers. On all other measures, PI, SR, Overs bowled, he stands at or near the
top of the lists.

Pollock is perhaps an anomaly in that we would not figure in anyone's list of the greatest ever bowlers, but we also forget what a fabulous bowler the young Pollock was -- 190w @ 20.5 is very very very good.

So the purpose of this post is to identify the basic list of top fast bowlers, and use them as a basis for
a) defining similarity metrics to find bowlers similar to Steyn (or others) at the same stage of their careers (46 Tests)
b) project Steyn (and other bowler's performances) looking at these criterion
c) verifying projections for bowlers whose career's we know are over to determine if the criteria we use are reasonable

These verified criteria would be the basis of a future (no promises when) analysis of best bowlers.

The Dynamic Dozen again (heavily weighted towards modern bowlers  because of the 238 wicket cut off!):
Ambrose,
Donald,
Hadlee,
Imran,
Lillee,
Marshall,
McGrath,
Pollock,
Steyn,
Trueman,
Waqar,
Wasim

I haven't done the stats analysis yet, but guesses would be welcome as to
a) Who are the most similar (and dis-similar) bowlers from this list to Steyn at the 46-Test stage of their careers?
b) Which two bowlers from this list would be the most similar? most dissimilar? Again at the 46-Test stage of their careers.

Comments on the selection methodology welcome.  Also, once set up, it will then be appropriate to talk of further adjustments for opposition quality, # of Tests played in a career, different eras.  But as all these folks with the exception of Lillee and Trueman bowled in the last 25 years, that may not be needed now.

Bharat

ObDisclaimer: I may at some point choose to write a book on cricket statistics.  It is one of my "bucket list" items.  So any material you choose to post publicly may well lead to insights that find its way in
the book, certainly without obligation of any sorts, and possibly without attribution due to oversight (though I will certainly try to remember if someone provided starting insights and thank them).  All this may well be moot, as my bucket list keeps growing faster than the items I cross off...
Also, thanks to the fabulous folks who provided CricInfo's Statsguru tool, without which none of this analysis would be easy. stats.espncricinfo.com/guru

Select India's World Cup 15

Not the one *you* would pick, but the one you think the selectors will.


IMO, Kohli has played himself into a spot, so India's top 7 are:
Tendulkar, Sehwag, Gambhir, Yuvraj, Raina, Kohli, Dhoni


On the bowling side, Munaf is surely in (talk about "Carpe Diem)
Zaheer, Harbhajan, Munaf are locks so that makes 10, and surely Yusuf Pathan is the allrounder.

I believe Praveen Kumar is almost surely in, as he was held back to prevent further injury.


That leaves 4 people -- one more pacer, one more spinner, one reserve batsman and one reserve keeper --to fit into 3 slots.   What is your guess for the chosen XV??


Mine is
Dhoni, Tendulkar, Sehwag, Gambhir, Yuvraj, Raina, Kohli, Pathan, Zaheer, Harbhajan, Munaf,
PLUS
Nehra, Ashwin, Rohit Sharma
(Yes Nehra makes it based on his excellent performance in India.  Too bad Karthik is out of the picture here).
Bharat

Cricket books: "Wickets in the East" and "Spin and other Turns" Guha

As India wins a tight ODI against RSA, that one run victory turning abject despair in the pundits to rampant optimism, here are some of the cricket books I treasure.  All have pride of place in my library, and are read and re-read several times over the last few years. I will start with the category, I will call "
Just plain fun

"Wickets in the East" and "Spin and other Turns" Guha
These two have been combined and re-released as "The States of Indian Cricket"

Guha is an avowed Marxist, and in many of his later cricket books that agenda comes through.  Being Guha, the writing is superb, and the cricket descriptions wonderful, but these two -- his first two books -- were written by Guha the cricket fan.  He learned cricket on the knee of his uncle Durai, an LAS who would have played for India (as per Guha), had he not lost his right arm in a childhood accident. The books are replete with these tales and beautifully written.  They bring to life long-lost heroes -- where else would we learn so much about CK Naidu, Lala Amarnath (my father's favorite cricketer), Mushtaq Ali (my mother's) and so much about the history of Ranji cricket and the rivalries.  The book brings Indian cricket alive as no other book(s) I have read have done before.

As an aside, it has been my distinct privilege to watch two full Tests in Bangalore in Durai's company, and I can testify that he has yarns that didn't make it into the book, and is one of the most entertaining people to watch a game with. 

Just to add to the pot:
"Cardus on Cricket" Cardus
Cardus is simply the best cricket writer that ever has lived.  His turn of phrase is almost lyrical -- this compendium, has many of his best articles, press reports and essays.  A must have for any serious cricket fan.

Most Psmith Wodehouse's have cricket, and only hardly needs an excuse to read Wodehouse anyway.

Bharat

Important ODI's for both teams

India's World Cup squad has quite a few fixed positions -- when you get down to it, 15 men is a very small number for such a squad -- you basically get only 4 reserves, and one of those is a reserve keeper.  Given the absence of Sehwag and Gambhir, many folks get to try to make their case in the coming weeks.

A number of those probables are staking their claim here -- Vijay, Kohli (though he has probably done enough to be in), Rohit Sharma and on the bowling front, Munaf Patel.  Ashwin, Chawla,  Sreesanth and Ishant Sharma, will also press their claims, as the absence of Praveen Kuman opens up the possibility of one of the other players making a big push for themselves.

On the South African front, no van Wyk, though I imagine he must get a go sometime.  Tahir is in the squad but hasn't been capped, as both team go with their strongest XIs to begin with -- Yusuf Pathan will probably not play as much in South Africa, but will be quite useful in India.

Bharat

Thanks to those of you who visited

A bunch of you folks showed up on this blog, some from rsc and some from Cricklinx, and I wanted to express my thanks.  Amazingly, there have been over 350 vistors and 1000 page views in the last 2 weeks it has been up (after filtering out my own visits -- irritatingly Google doesn't let you do that automatically).  Yes, yes, I know there are blogs with 1000 visits every hour, let alone over 2 weeks, but this far exceeds anything I had imagined by at least a factor of 10.  Even ignoring my own visits (about 30 -- irritatingly Google has no way to ignore out my own visits), the results were interesting, so just to share some of the things that surprised me. 

Traffic was fairly varied, averaging 15 visitors / day during Durban (when I just started) and 40 visitors / day during CapeTown (60 & 55 on Jan 6 & 7, when Cricklinx linked to my blog).

The bulk of the visits came from the US (250) and India (not much surprise, given the topic and focus of this blog).  The #1 city was Bangalore (27 visits) and #2 were US cities (NYC, Edison, San Jose) all above 15 visits.  Some of the places that surprised me were Cancun (3 visits), Stockholm (2), and a couple of visits from Brazil & Argentina!  The world is truly becoming global.

Bharat

Very important events in Dubai not generating much interest.

The ICC Tribunal nears its end.  The results may well be far reaching.


A "guilty" verdict, could be seen as a big boost to anti-corruption efforts, whereas a mere slap on the wrist will be viewed as "no one cares -- it keeps happening."  With big money entering the game in shovelfuls, it is important that not only that the game be clean, that it appear to be clean.


At the other end of the scale is the human element.  Three young men stand to lose their entire livelihood, for a crime that (if guilty) they may well have viewed as a no big deal ("I bowl deliberate no balls to intimidate batsmen all the time, so whats the big deal?"), and face public disgrace, financial ruin, or even jail time.  Of particular poignancy, is that one is a potentially transcendent talent who is not even old enough to
drive, vote or order a drink in many countries.

The last event of similar magnitude I recall were the hearings where Cronje broke down.  Yes these hearing pass with barely a ripple of interest, while the ongoing Tests, T20, and IPL auctions crowd the headlines.

Bharat

Morne van Wyk makes himself a shedload of money

In the IPL that is.  Undrafted in the IPL, after his blitzkreig today (67 off 39) in the one-off T20, he will be in demand for sure.  Talking about seizing the moment -- he is only in the squad because Graham Smith dropped out.


So who has cap room left?  All the teams, but only significant amounts are Kings & Deccan with $2M each, and Pune with $1M.  Kings will probably be cautious given their financial situation. Delhi has $750K and Mumbai $500K.  I'm guessing at least $500K for Morne -- timing is everything.  Had this game been held a few days ago, he may have been a lot richer.

The World Cup will surely throw up some stars (who will probably get popular in India).  The wiser teams have retained some cap room to sign undrafted free agents at that time before IPL4 begins.

Bharat

The Ws

I've been invited by Bharat to make some contributions to this blog, which is very flattering. In the mid 1990s I made a series of posts to the newsgroup rec.sport.cricket containing my idea of the best XIs where the members' surnames began with the same letter of the alphabet. I don't have copies of all those posts now, but here's one that I do still have: the Ws. I haven't updated it in any way. Nowadays Steve Waugh would have to be put in the first XI, of course. (Note that when it was written Courtney Walsh still had fewer than 300 Test wickets.) Off-hand I can't think of any more recent players who would demand inclusion, though I'm probably overlooking someone obvious, as increasingly seems to happen as I get older. Unfortunately W is not a letter that shows Indian players to great advantage.

We finish on a high note with a very strong eleven. (X, Y and Z havealready been taken care of, in a QUXYZ eleven.) In fact there were somany strong candidates, I've drawn up both a first and a second eleven (and still had to omit some fine players).

First Eleven:

Bill Woodfull (A)
Frank Woolley (E)
Doug Walters (A)
Everton Weekes (WI)
Clyde Walcott (WI)
Frank Worrell (WI) (capt)
Wasim Akram (P)
Wasim Bari (P) (wk)
Shane Warne (A)
Waqar Younis (P)
Bob Willis (E)

Most of this eleven more or less selected itself. Frank Woolley's Test batting statistics were comparatively modest, but at his best he was one of the all-time greats, and his slow left-arm bowling and slipfielding will also come in useful. It was close for the number 11 spot between Bob Willis and Courtney Walsh, but you can't really argue with 300 Test wickets.

Second eleven:

Cyril Washbrook (E)
John Wright (NZ)
Kepler Wessels (A/SA)
Mark Waugh (A)
Bob Wyatt (E) (capt)
Steve Waugh (A)
John Waite (SA) (wk)
Max Walker (A)
Johnny Wardle (E)
J.C. "Farmer" White (E)
Courtney Walsh (WI)

This eleven could give a lot of the alphabetic first elevens a run for their money.
Other players who deserve a mention are:
Batsmen:
Cyril Walters, Pelham Warner, Barry Wood, Willie Watson, Peter Willey,T.S.Worthington, Bob Woolmer, Alan Wells, A.J.Watkins, Wilf Wooller (E); Graeme Wood (A); Ajit Wadekar (I); Wasim Raja,Wazir Mohammed (P); Syed Wettimuny (SL).
All-rounders: Rockley Wilson (E); Sammy Woods (E/A).
Spinners: Doug Wright, Don Wilson (E).
Fast bowlers: John Warr (E); Tom Wall (unlucky not to make the secondeleven) and Mark Whitney (A).
Wicketkeepers: Ken Wadsworth (NZ), Arthur Wood (E).

India's Test Match schedule in 2011

Another feast for Test cricket fans.  Minimum 10: 2 (@WI), 4 (@Eng), 4 (@Aus), Likely 13: a potential 3 more hosting WI (not sure why we would play Tests back to back) and Improbable 16: 3 more vs. Eng.


@WI
Jun 20-24 (Mon-Fri): 1st Test v India, Sabina Park, Kingston, Jamaica
Jun 28-Jul 2 (Tue-Sat): 2nd Test v India, Kensington Oval, Bridgetown, Barbados
Jul 6-10 (Wed-Sun): 3rd Test v India, Windsor Park, Roseau, Dominica

@England
July 21-25 (Thu-Mon): 1st npower Test v India, Lord’s
July 29-Aug 2 (Fri-Tue): 2nd npower Test v India, Trent Bridge
Aug 10-14 (Wed-Sun): 3rd npower Test v India, Edgbaston
Aug 18-22 (Thu-Mon): 4th npower Test v India, Kia Oval


The following seems too good to be true:
October         England tour of India, 3 tests, 5 ODIs
November        West Indies tour of India, 3 tests, 3-5 ODIs
December        India tour of Australia, 4 tests, 5 ODIs, 1 T20


There just doesn't seem to be enough time to play that much cricket.   Plus the ECB website shows India as 5 ODIs, 1 T20 -- maybe that will change to 2Tests and 2 T20s:-)

Bharat

IND @ South Africa Cricket: Ratings (INDIA)

D Sehwag 144r @24, 1 50
India's much hyped match-winning batsman, wasn't. Barring a 50 in a sure loss at Centurion, he didn't come remotely close to expectations.  Got starts twice in Durban, but failed to capitalize. The relatively high grade is simply to leave space and differentiate from the true "F"s.  Sehwag also gets an assist for the draw at Capetown, because it was (misplaced) fear of his blade that surely caused Smith to bat on until the end of D4.


A- Gambhir 242r @61, 3 50s
3 gritty fifties that all could have been centuries, showed us that India's most hard-nosed batsman was on the way back. Never showing anything close to the fluency he achieved in 2009, what Gambhir lacked in form and talent, he made up for with courage.  A hand injury in Centurion didn't stop a fighting innings, and though it did put him out at Durban.  At Capetown, a Tsosobe blow denied him a richly deserved century, but it didn't stop him from coming out on D5 and shepherding India to safety in the second innings.  In the Gavaskar mould, in temperament and tenacity, if not in talent or technique. I remain an unabashed fan.


F Dravid 120r @20
Like the British Empire in the years leading up to World War II, the sun has set on Dravid -- he too, however, refuses to accept it, not surprisingly for a man with such spine and self-belief.  Hopes that he will return to anything remotely close to his old form are fast fading.  Dravid, circa 2009-11, no longer knows where his off stump is, chases balls well outside his strike zone, stabs awkardly at balls he would have met with a measured forward defense 5 years ago.  The only question that remains is, will he go, or will be be pushed? His 200th catch, an absolutely brilliant take, was the only highlight in what will go down as his worst tour.


A Tendulkar 326r @82, 2 tons, 1w @66
Very good series.  The ton in Centurion restored Indian pride and set the platform for the Laxman masterclass in Durban.  The battle with Steyn on D3 of CapeTown was the most amazing Test cricket I have been privileged to watch.  Had India at the threshold of victory with his Casabianca act, when he fell late on D3, which is what pushes this from the sublime (A+) to the merely great.  Yet again, conjured up magic with the wicket of Boucher, opening the door again for India.  We shall not see his like again, and will tell our children that there was once a time when giants walked the earth.


B+ Laxman 196r @39, 1 50
How to rate a man who was a match-winner in the one Test we won, but poor in all 4 other innings?  Durban is an A++, almost on par with Kallis at Capetown (Kallis exceeding VVSL only because of the rib injury), but poor elsewhere.  Had wretched luck twice, falling to a Mark Waugh special at Durban and a freak runout at Cape Town.  In the end, I decided to grade for what he did, not what could have been; reasoning that a sub-40 average cannot warrant an "A." India's window for #1 will close the day he and Tendulkar retire.


D Pujara 31r @10
Funnily, I rate Pujara's performance a shade better than Dravid or Vijay's. He actually spent a lot of time at the crease in Durban (~100 balls), and looked somewhat the part.  He had the misfortune of playing Steyn at his tyrannical best in Cape Town.  Will get some chances to make a middle order spot his own in 2011, but will have to fight off Vijay and a fast rising Kohli.


B- Dhoni 179r @36, 1 50, 13 catches
Generally competent keeping, a fighting 90 at Centurion to restore India's pride, and a very useful 35 in Durban.  Must get a lot of credit at convincing the team that they could win after T1.  Wasn't the sharpest tactical tool on the block in CapeTown on D4, but his pace bowlers let him down badly.

B Harbhajan 15w @30, 93r @19,
Horrible at Centurion, decent at Durban, and amazing at Capetown.  If there was any justice, he'd have some support at the other end, and India would be 2-1 up.  Reminds me of Kumble's last-man-standing 12-fer in Sydney when the rest did nothing at the other end.  Bowled with great heart, spinning it in from miles outside off, after hitting the rough (which isn't easy, and hard on the fingers).  You can doubt his results, his brains, but not his heart.  A fighting 40 should have helped India win T3.


B+ Zaheer 10w @25, 50r @17
Zaheer was fabulous in Durban, but like VVSL came up short in Capetown.  The short gap between the two Tests didn't help, as he looked stiff and old throughout T3, and couldn't pull out the stops when we needed another wicket desperately on D4.


F Ishanth 7w @48, 25r @6
Very poor.  His figures actually flatter him because at least a couple of wickets were gifts; generally leaked runs like a sieve.  Needs to pull himself together, and be more consistent, rather than brief spells that hint at great talent.  But then we have been saying that for a while.


C- Sreesanth 9w @42, 7r @3
A 5-fer at Capetown showed how good he could be when focused, but then like the little girl, "when (s)he was bad, (s)he was horrid."  An apt description for averaging exactly one wicket in the remaining 4 innings.  Just isn't good enough, when at least 2 of those 4 innings were played under perfect conditions for his seam bowling, and only Centurion was on a flat track.  His lack of dependability meant we just could not consider going into Capetown with just 2 pacers and Ojha, as there was every chance he could implode.  Has the most amazing seam position of anyone I've ever seen, but can't seem to realize that when conditions are in his favor, all he needs to do is get the batsman to play at least 4 or 5 of his deliveries on the front foot every over.  Didn't help with his "Waah the crowd is calling me names" whine either. Having criticized him roundly, will now add that in fairness he was somewhat unlucky, and probably deserved another few wickets -- for instance, was the best of a bad lot of pacers on D4 in Capetown, but didn't have a single wicket to show for it.


F Vijay 28r @14
Played under poor conditions -- showed some tenacity, but in the end just didn't score enough.  It is tough on him to keep going in and out on the team, but at this point he hasn't shown enough to displace any of the regulars, barring Dravid.


G Unadkat 0w for 101, 2r @2
From the same town as Gandhi, he took the Mahatma's principle of Ahimsa (do no harm) to heart.  Why he was on the tour was doubtless a mystery to his captain and teammates, but known only to the BCCI.


G Raina 6r @3, 0w for 77
Also made one recall Gandhi -- Debang Gandhi, that is -- with his cat on a hot tin roof act.  Talent alone won't cut it young man.  You need to have guts, courage and heart -- something he could learn from
Gambhir.


D- Selectors
The selectors got the basics right, picking the correct starting XI. They also got the mix for the backups perfectly correct, adding two reserve batsmen, two reserve pacers, a reserve spinner and a reserve keeper.  Where they failed miserably is in picking the two reserve pacers, because the only way either of Unadkat or Yadav should have been at Centurion, was with a ticket.  All I can say is that if Unadkat was thought to be better than Yadav, I can only shudder at the carnage were the latter picked.

Overall comment: When I look at the statistics, I am amazed that India not only matched South Africa 1-1, they were basically one D4 post-lunch wicket away from destroying RSA 2-1 in this series.

Bharat

CrickLinx.com Update

Following up with 2 bits of informationon cricklinx.com (cricket video streaming site in the US -- see info below)

* Cricklinx.com will close all "DAY PASSES" starting Jan 10, 2011 until after the World Cup & IPL4 -- presumably because they feel that they will get more signups just for the World Cup
* Cricklinx will provide an ultra-HD (3MB/s HD Streaming) on Sunday, 9th January 2011 for 1st Twenty20 between India & South Africa.  All theday passes & HD passes will get this. This is a trial to see if their
servers can handle the load.

Again, use the code CRICKETREFLECTIONS to get 5% off.

For details:
I have been watching cricket in HD oncricklinx.com -- the quality is simply amazing. To see how to sign up, check out http://cricketreflections.blogspot.com/2011/01/discount-code-for-cricklinx.html
and get a 5% discount code and learn about the various offerings.

For a comparison between willow.tv and cricklinx.com (both of which I have subscribed to), please check out http://cricketreflections.blogspot.com/2011/01/cricklinx-manna-for-us-cricket-lovers.html


ObDisclaimer: I have no commercial interest in cricklinx.com of any sort.
ObFinePrint: This post should not be viewed as providing any guarantee, implied or otherwise, about how long Cricklinx.com would continue to exist.  I am satisfied enough with their service to date to purchase the 360-day pass after using them on a per-series basis for a month (NZ@Ind).  This is strictly Caveat Emptor.  Given that I happily paid over $100 in the past for individual series on much poorer quality, I'm more than satisfied.

Coming soon on this site

Sorry for the hiatus, I was unwell (though that didn't stop my watching the RSA Test).  Here is a preview of what I will be posting in the coming days:

• Update on cricklinx.com (policies will change on Jan 10 -- check back here for details)
• Report on the CapeTown Test
• Player Grades Ind vs South Africa
• Poll on preferred posting
• The best pace bowling I have ever seen (Dale Steyn on Capetown D3) and how it compares with other incredible spells
• ODI / T20 reports (if I watch -- but nothing like the Tests)
• World Cup Previews

 As should be obvious, postings will peak during Tests involving India, particularly with Heavyweight sides!

Bharat

Who is Man of the Series right now?

As India's inning ends, there have been 3 people who have dominated this series.

We still have a two innings of play to go and all 3 contenders will have a shot to make a difference, but right now whom would you pick?  IMO, the two leading contenders are:

Steyn with 20 wickets at 16
OR Kallis with 389 runs at 130, 2 tons


Tendulkar with 312 runs at 78, 2 tons is a contender, but I think he'd have to do especially well in the second innings run chase, ideally leading India to a win, to be awarded the MoS.  Basically he would have to win MoM in this game to have a shot at MoS.  A century in a losing cause could also do it if Steyn flops.


I'd pick Steyn right now, but its close between him and Kallis at this  time.

Amla with 248 runs @ 62 is a long shot, provided he makes a big ton.

Bharat

Steyn double-strike powers South Africa ahead after lunch

The second new ball is hooping around and batting is hard.  Pujara got a good delivery that swung in late from outside leg to catch him plumb in front.  But his technique -- playing woodenly from the crease -- was more like that of a #9 than a #6.  Next over, Dhoni couldn't resist pushing at one that tailed away, after letting a couple of identical deliveries pass through to push a simple edge to gully.

If Gambhir's dismissal unlocked the door, and Laxman's freak run out pushed it half open, Steyn has burst through with some superb hostile bowling.    At 247/6 India is looking at a possible 50 run deficit unless Tendulkar can ride out his Steyn-storm with Harbhajan.

In the meantime Tendulkar gets his 51st with a mis-hooked six over the keeper's head.  He really needs to farm the strike against Steyn..    He is standing well outside the crease. 

Steyn is in the ZONE.  If there was any doubt as to who the #1 bowler in the world is, there is none now. 

Bharat

Turnabout is fair play -- freak runout of VVSL gives South Africa huge opening

3 balls to go for the new ball, and SRT on 94* is keen to get to his ton.  He steps out to Harris and drives powerfully -- technically it is a catch, but Harris puts his hand up in self defense as the ball threatens to cut him in half -- and it richochets off his hand right onto the stumps to catch a hapless Laxman out of his ground.
Tendulkar sticks his tongue out and makes a wry grimace.

The Test is wide open.  Kallis' dismissal was key to India's revival in T2 -- will the same happen here?

Pujara walks in to face the second new ball, with 2 overs left for lunch.  Steyn continues where he left off, beating Pujara with a pearler that swings away at pace, in an action replay of his first ball of the day.

But, Morkel still bowling too short and too wide.  India has 4 balls to see out, and Smith crowds Pujara with SEVEN close in fielders!!  But he survives.

Bharat

Discount code for CrickLinx

As I wrote earlier, I have both Willow (www.willow.tv) & Cricklinx (www.cricklinx.com) and recommend the TV quality of Cricklinx (I am watching Ind-RSA & the Ashes on a High Definition Stream on a 65" widescreen HD TV, and it looks absolutely spectacular).

For a comparison between the two checkout http://cricketreflections.blogspot.com/2011/01/cricklinx-manna-for-us-cricket-lovers.html, but see below for instructions to sign up and get a discount.

ObDisclaimer: I have no commercial interest in cricklinx.com of any sort.

Step 1: Sign up: go to www.cricklinx.com and sign up (you will have to provide an email).
Step 2: Check out the demo to see if your internet service can handle the standard definition or high definition streams (if it can do both, take the HD -- it is well worth the slight increase).
Step 3: Sign up for a package if you like it -- use the coupon code CRICKETREFLECTIONS to get a 5% discount only for the DAY passes. (Not for the per series -- see below)

You can sign up on a per series basis, or for a fixed time which is a lot cheaper. I originally signed up for Ind-NZ, and liked it so much that I just got the 360-day package for $80 (alas no 5% discount then). This package amazingly covers HD telecasts not only the 3 ongoing series, but also Ind@Eng, Ind@WI, and Ind@Aus, it will also include the World Cup and IPL4 (God help my sleep hours!).  Also includes a couple of other series I think..

ObTruthInAdvertising: I asked cricklinx.com for a discount coupon code; they not only provided the 5% discount code for CRICKETREFLECTIONS, they kindly agreed to extend my current subscription by a month for 10 signups.

ObFinePrint: I provide no guarantee, implied or otherwise, about how long Cricklinx.com would continue to exist.  I am satisfied enough with their service to date to purchase the 360-day pass after using them on a per-series basis for a month (NZ@Ind).  This is strictly Caveat Emptor.  Given that I happily paid over $100 in the past for individual series on much poorer quality, I'm more than satisfied.

Key period coming in the Capetown Test -- 2nd new ball almost due

The second new ball will be due in 5 overs.  India 215/3, Tendulkar (84*) and Laxman (5*) at the crease.

India has had its share of luck to be 73/1 in this session, aided by some less-than-optimal field placings by Smith.  Steyn and Harris bowled well, but the bowler of the morning has been Tsotsobe -- he got so many edges that flew into gaps.

SRT sweeps powerfully to get to 88*.  He will want to get to his ton if possible before the new ball -- now 89*. If India can ride out the next 25 overs without losing another wicket, they will be favorites to win the match.  If RSA can get these two with the new ball, they will be favorites to win.

Petersen coming on??  SRT will be hoping for some juicy full tosses or long hops to dispatch.
Bharat

What if the UDRS were in use at Capetown?

After Durban there was much brow-beating from UDRS apologists about "how bad India was to not use the UDRS".  Lets assume for a moment that the UDRS was in use at the Newlands  Lets see what impact it may / would have had (assuming the sides called for a review at the 3 close calls)


1. Sreesanth lbw appeal against Kallis (not given). Over 59.5

That would have been overturned as the ball was smacking fully into leg stump as per HawkEye, and Kallis would have been sent packing
Kallis lbw Sreesanth 54
Prince (batting) 0* 
South Africa 169/5 (52.5 overs)
UDRS Scorecard Impact: Huge.  107 fewer runs for Kallis.  Quite possibly 120-150 runs fewer for RSA, who may have been bowled out on D1 itself (there were still 21 overs left to be bowled on D1)

2. Harris lbw appeal against Tendulkar (not given)  Over 25.4

That would NOT have been overturned as the ball was just clipping leg stump -- more than half the ball was outside the stumps -- and as I understand the UDRS conditions that is not enough to overturn a "Not out"

Tendulkar (batting) 24*
Gambhir (batting) 44*
India 88/2 (25.4 overs)

No UDRS impact to the scorecard


3. Steyn caught behind appeal against Tendulkar (not given)

That too would not have been overturned as the replay would have indicated enough doubt about whether the ball bounced before Boucher caught it.

Tendulkar (batting) 49*
Gambhir (batting) 65*
India 142/2 (50.2 overs)
No UDRS impact to the scorecard


UDRS-fans please note -- it is irrelevant whether Tendulkar was "out" or Kallis was "not out" -- this is precisely how the UDRS would have been adjudicated. So the summary of the non-use of UDRS in Newlands, to date is that the only team to benefit is South Africa  who has scored 120-150 runs more
than it likely would have...


Bharat

T3D3: Spectacular first over by Steyn

Steyn Beats Tendulkar 5 times; one is a thin edge for a brace to bring up his 50.  The others are masterpieces of late away swing, and on one of those SRT probably feathered an edge to Boucher.  However, Steyn is slow going up, and Gould gives it not out.  That could have been the Test right there...

Really amazing swing bowling at extremely high pace.  Tendulkar will count himself lucky to still be there, whether he feathered one or not.

Hold on -- replays show it may have bounced before it got to Boucher -- so the UDRS apologists can hold their venom.

Morkel not getting much swing, but appreciable bounce.  Batting will not be easy for the first 40 minutes or so.

Bharat

CrickLinx -- manna for US cricket lovers

If you haven't done so already, run and check out www.cricklinx.com.  This is the latest competitor to Willow's internet streaming (www.willow.tv).  However, there is no comparison.

First a disclaimer.  I have no link of any sort with cricklinx, other than being a customer.

Discount Offer: For a 5% discount for any "Day" packages, sign up with the coupon code CRICKETREFLECTIONS. (See another post in this blog for details)

Cricklinx offers High Definition (1.2M) and Standard Definition streams, and are streaming all 3 contests -- the Ashes, India @South Africa, and Pakistan @NZ live.  The quality is very good, and superior to Willow.

A quick side-by-side comparison with Willow is:
Quality: CrickLinx HD quality is much better (the SD is equivalent to Willow's quality or slightly better). Cricklinx is promising a 3M feed -- I can't wait -- though the HD is very high quality (viewed on 65" HDTV, off a wireless feed to my laptop)
Highlights: Both provide highlight packages available on demand
Replays on Demand: Willow provides full replay facilities for all Test matches on demand and keeps those available for a long time.  Cricklinx only provides on-demand replays for T20s as far as I can tell; they seem to have introduced the Ashes on demand, but by not providing on-demand replays for all matches they are missing a trick -- disk space is cheap, and they could easily do this for a few days.
Feed: Cricklinx has 4 servers but they all show the same feed -- Sky TV HD.  Willow has 3 feeds, and this allows you to switch if one goes down -- but so far, Sky hasn't gone down.  A couple of times, Sky has switched from cricket to soccer, and missed switching over for some time -- usually they are pretty quick, but one time it took at least 5 minutes, and I switched over to Willow.
Commercial interruptions: Sky doesn't have anywhere near as many as the Indian channels that willow streams.  So Cricklinx wins that one.

So, what is my recommendation?   I had willow (and still do, as it was a year package and was very welcome).  But after trying Cricklinx out, I had no hesitation in purchasing Cricklinx anyway, and prefer it (but for the replays).  My recommended package is the 360 package for $80, as that apparently gets you *ALL* cricket, including the World Cup & IPL4 -- plus, of course, India's tours of England, WI and Australia...

Of course, before you buy -- check out the demo feed and see if your internet connection has the bandwidth for either the HD or SD feeds.  If you can get the HD, get it for sure, as it is breathtakingly good in quality.

ObDisclaimer: I have no commercial interest in cricklinx.com of any sort.  However, they are doing an excellent job, and it is in my interest to keep them flourishing and profitable so they continue to improve their service to cricket-starved fans in the US.
ObFinePrint: This post should not be viewed as providing any guarantee, implied or otherwise, about how long Cricklinx.com would continue to exist.  I am satisfied enough with their service to date to purchase the 360-day pass after using them on a per-series basis for a month (NZ@Ind).  This is strictly Caveat Emptor.  Given that I happily paid over $100 in the past for individual series on much poorer quality, I'm more than satisfied.

Go to www.cricketreflections.blogspot.com for articles about cricket, especially India Test cricket, and overviews of the World Cup!  And for a 5% discount on cricklinx.com sign up with the coupon code of CRICKETREFLECTIONS
Bharat

Khawaja seems a keeper // On Smith, Beer, & Collingwood

Last evening, the Ashes were on the TV (muted) while playing the Dixit board game with some friends -- that is a really fun game BTW -- and I got to see some of Khawaja's batting.  Overall I was pretty impressed.  He started off like a ball of fire, but then slowed down as the English bowlers returned to basics.  He was unfortunately to get out on what turned out to be the last ball of the day, but he had become becalmed somewhat.

Impressions -- seems quite aggressive, but generally sound except he is a touch loose outside offstump.  Very compact looking batsman -- mostly good technique, except for pushing at the ball as it goes away from him, but he does so with soft hands.  That augers well for him, and he will get better.  One thought -- is this the opportunity to sending Ponting in at #4 or even #5?


Will someone, also explain, what the heck Smith is doing in the team?   The kind can't really bat or bowl at the Test level; at least not yet.  He doesn't seem to be the towering talent that one would persist with.  I would prefer North.  He may well be the one dropped when Ponting returns.

Beer should bowl sometime tomorrow.  One of the best cricket names in recent times, so just for that I'd like him to stay for a while. 

On another note, Collingwood is mighty lucky to get this game.  Morgan should have played this final Test, at least with the Ashes decided.  He will be on a very short leash, but the last time his career was on the rack he responded with a fabulous ton against the Proteas, and seemingly reeled off 4 tons on the trot.  My money is on him to come through.


Bharat

T3D2: India back in the game (somewhat) after slow wicketless final session

362 isn't necessarily a match-winning score, but it is a lot more than either Dhoni or Smith expected when South Africa was inserted.  That they got there was due to the brilliance of Kallis, and then when India were stuttering at 28/2 in what would soon become perfect batting conditions, there was quite some alarm in Indian hearts.  (For more details pre-tea, please see other reports in my blog).

The post-tea session saw Gambhir & Tendulkar add 93 valuable runs, and most importantly not lose a wicket as we ended the day at 142/2.  At 27 overs India were a fairly brisk 98/2.  The last 23 overs they crawled, adding just 44 runs -- not a single boundary was struck, as Harris -- who had gone for 18 runs in his first 4 overs -- was allowed to bowl 7 more overs for just 11 runs.  This was key as Smith could rotate his fast bowlers from the other end.

I would have liked a bit faster scoring once we got to 98/2 quickly (though the end result was very close to my 143/3 prediction, at the start of tea), but can't argue with the safety first approach.  Still, the match is wide open.  If South Africa can get any sort of lead (say 50 or more), India will find it hard to chase down 270+ on Day 5.  On the other hand, if India can get a lead of about 100, they will be in the driver's seat.


The slow scoring means that India -- assuming they can avoid a collapse and get through lunch only losing one wicket -- well after tea.  This means that an Indian win is unlikely and an Indian defeat or a draw looms as the most likely option (barring the unlikely possibility of India batting through D3 and past lunch on D4).


Rough odds:
India: 20%
Draw:40%
South Africa: 40%
Bharat

Run rate pressure building

After taking Harris' first 4 overs for 18 runs, his next 7 overs went for 11 runs.  At the other end the pace bowlers pinged away, and the pressure has increased...  Gambhir got another life as deVilliers put down a fairly easy chance (for him at least). 

Now pace from both ends as Smith strives for the breakthrough.  Can a becalmed Gambhir last through the end of the day?  He is now fishing at balls outside off that he was leaving earlier.

Bharat

Post tea: Harris the key

Long extended session and South Africa has 42 overs to bowl.  Kallis has a side strain, so his usual contribution will be lacking.  So it is down to 3 pacers and Tsotsobe.  Difficult as it is to believe, if India can ride out the next few overs, they can take the game away from South Africa.

Harris is trying to bowl slowly -- at 82 kmph -- and his first over looks very good.  Only one single and then a long hop that Gambhir gratefully dispatches -- if India can take a bunch of singles and work him around without risk that will make a huge difference, and put South Africa under huge pressure.

South Africa need to either get wickets or keep the run rate down.  Morkel beats Tendulkar with a beauty, and then bowls a half volley on leg stump.  Sachin has scored 4000 of his Test runs with a flick, and he doesn't miss out.  Tendulkar standing outside the crease and straight drives Morkel for 4.  He needs to reign in the aggression a bit, but both those were riskless shots.

Bharat

Request for Predictions: End of D2 score for India?

India 49/2 at tea chasing South Africa's 361.  42 overs left in the day -- most of which should be bowled.

What is your prediction for end of day score? 

Bharat

India frittering away perfect batting conditions

I have been an admirer of Sehwag for long, and heartily endorsed his hell-for-leather approach in the first two Tests.  Conditions for batting were very difficult, and only a Sehwag special could have put South Africa on the defensive.  But here, as India showed, the new ball is only dangerous for about a dozen overs, and then conditions become so easy that even that giant-of-a-batsman Tsotsobe can survive.  So, why oh why, attempt that ambitious away from the body drive in the 3rd over of the match against Steyn?  I know "that is the way he plays" but surely he needs to understand that if he waited for about 10 overs in these conditions, he would have a large score there for the taking.

There is very little swing on offer -- only some bounce -- and that should ease out very soon.


Rahul Dravid has been struggling, and if he didn't have bad luck, he would have no luck; except wait, he survived a runout when Duminy missed with all 3 stumps on view (Gambhir made a yes, yes, no, no call). Dravid looked completely out of sorts, stabbing weakly at balls outside off as is his wont of late.  Still the conditions were easing and this was his golden opportunity.  Only to be cruelly run out by a sharp piece of fielding from AB who swooped down onto a dropped catch from Petersen.  This may be the end of a great great career -- at the very least, we should consider Pujara at #3, and Dravid at #6.

India are in danger of frittering away perfect batting conditions.  We have the middle order and a very very shaky Gambhir in during the 11th over itself.  Another wicket and we are in big trouble -- if Tendulkar and Gambhir can hold it together for a while, batting will become much easier.

All 3 results are still possible, but at this time South Africa must like its chances.  If they can get a 100 run lead on India, then India will struggle in the 4th innings.  If, India can, on the other hand, get a 100 run lead it will be the South Africans who will be in trouble.

South Africa will look to get to the tail by the end of today -- India will want to lose no more than one more wicket.

Bharat

Incomparable Kallis takes South Africa to good score despite Sreesanth's heroics

India came in knowing their one chance to get back into the match was with the new ball -- and they used it to perfection.  Dhoni gave Ishant one over with the new ball, and the tossed it to Sreesanth to partner Zaheer, and the next 4 overs could not have been better scripted.  And in his first over itself, Sreesanth delivered -- two wickets in his first over, getting first Prince and then the luckless Boucher.  Prince got one that seamed away and jagged back to take off stump -- a seam bowler's dream bowl.  Sree then got Bouncher with a beautiful away swinger that could have got a set batsman, let alone one who just walked in.  Zaheer continued his personal duel with Dale Steyn, bouncing him repeatedly, and Steyn fended one off his throat to Pujara, and when Morkel misjudged another Sreesanth special, South Africa had slumped from 252/4 to 283/8 in just over 4 overs.  Kallis was on 99, having plundered 30 runs in that 4 over spell, but with the new ball only 8 overs old, Harris & the hapless Tsotsobe to come (he of the highest Test score of 3), Sehwag & Gambhir must been mentally putting on their pads.

As well as India had bowled, better did Kallis bat.  He had a 11 over partnership with Harris where they split the strike, but at 310/9 India again was back into the match.  Kallis was on 118* and he literally flew to 161, adding 52 runs with Tsotsobe in just 14 overs.  More importantly, he hogged almost 70% of the strike in that 10th wicket partnership (India take note) providing a masterclass on how to bat with the tail.

Every time I see Kallis play, I find myself surprised by the sheer beauty and elegance he can bring to the crease.  Face it, he is a great big lumbering ox of a man.  When he runs in to bowl with his shamboling run up, elegance is the last thing that comes to mind.  Yes, he takes those amazing catches, but still you put that down to great reflexes.  And when he bats, and stands there like a Goliath wielding a club, as he waves his bat menacingly at the bowler, you expect brute force -- and that you get as he lashes the ball through point off the back foot.  But then -- just when you are settling down to expect something like a Shahid Afridi special -- out comes that cover drive.  A stroke off such beauty and balance that it takes your breath away, and every time I see it, I must confess to a brief frisson of surprise, followed by a sense of contentment and sheer amazement (tempered somewhat that it is 4 more runs against India) at the sheer skill of this man.

His batting is of the highest class -- of his contemporaries, I would rate only Tendulkar, Lara and Ponting a notch ahead of him -- but when you add in his ability with the ball (he would play for many Test sides -- certainly India -- as a pure bowler) there is no question -- Kallis is the most valuable cricketer in world cricket today, and the only allrounder ahead of him is Gary Sobers.

Bharat

Newlands D1: South Africa ahead as India fritter away the advantage of winning the toss

Dhoni won the toss, and in conditions that were perfectly suited for swinging the ball, inserted South Africa -- doubtless Smith would have done the same, despite his statement of not being sure what to do.  The ball moved around quite a bit, the pitch was bouncy -- and the forecast for Days 2-5 was bright sunlight. The stage was perfectly set for India to win the series.  The script seemed a complete reversal of the one in Centurion; Dhoni would have envisioned bowling out South Africa, either by end of play today or having them 7 or 8 down. 

Someone forgot to tell the South African batsmen.   Also the Indian pacemen were not clued in on the script -- the attack was lackluster, and pressure was applied only in patches.  For starters the ball didn't swing consistently, only once in a while. But there was bounce to be had, and the occasional delivery jagged off the pitch appreciably.  Batting was hard -- and the South African batsmen, particularly Kallis went a long way to ensuring that India not only lost the advantage of winning the toss, they are now the underdog instead of the favorite.

Today the rub of the green definitely went against the Indians.  When they did get the ball in the right slot, it either beat the bat or flew through a vacant position. But fundamentally, the Indians didn't go at the batsmen except in patches and rarely applied the pressure from both ends.

At first, all seemed going to plan. Order was restored when Zaheer Khan got his bunny Smith early -- again if you look at the ball he got out on, it would look like a straight ball that was angling in.  But it was set up by the many away swingers afterwards.  Then the rain came, and off they went.

After the first resumption, Ishant Sharma got Petersen off a ball that seamed a touch away outside off that he tried to drive.  Ishant's first spell was poor and he got a wicket -- his later spells were much more incisive and he went wicketless.  Another rain break and this time they came back for good.

When they came out, Amla was the man in a hurry.  Zaheer looked extremely stiff and uninterested when he came back ambling up to the wicket.  Trying for swing he overpitched and served up 3 juicy half volleys that Amla dispatched gratefully.  Sreesanth also pushed it up as well -- it was almost as though the Indians felt that they had to just put it up and wickets would come.  There was none of the "come at the batsmen all the time" attitude that won us the game at Durban.

Anyway, the man who pulled India back was Sreesanth -- figures can lie, he went for 13 in that over, but it was actually a good over. Amla hooked him for six of a very good bouncer that Amla was lucky to keep down.  Next ball edged through gully in the air off the leading edge. Then a genuine nick that flew short of the vacant 3rd slip and another bouncer that was well hooked for a single.  Zak bowled his one good over where he beat Amla twice, but generally he was extremely poor. And then India got a bit of luck -- Amla pulled a long hop and just hit it poorly and swatted it down Pujara's throat.  That was a huge relief for India -- Amla was taking the game away from India, but still hooking with two men on the fence was not a high percentage shot. Amla seems to be a man in a hurry -- what happened to the patient man we saw in India.  I think -- as an opposition fan -- I prefer this Amla.  This version gives you a lot of chances.

At 124/3 the session was well poised.  Harbhajan would be key as this would be a long session -- if he could keep one end bottled up, and put pressure on the bats as he had done in Durban, that would help.  Instead Bhajji just fired it down at 86-87 kmph and was worked for easy singles.  A couple of times he floated it up at 82-83 kmph and troubled the batsman, but mostly he bowled flat & quick.

Sreesanth bowled well, and got deVilliers eventually when AB's patient grew thin and he drove at a ball that he had been defending to edge to Dhoni.  150/4 and it was anybody's game.  Sreesanth then hit Kallis and there was a huge appeal -- the umpire turned it down, as would I.  In real time, I had some thought that it might be too high, but Hawkeye showed it smacking into the top of leg stump.

Anyway, what I found really bad was the shameless "homer"ism of Pommie Mbangwa (yes, I know he is not South African, but he lives there).  When Sreesanth appealed loudly he said, going down the leg with authority. As I said, it looked very adjacent.   On the reply, Pommie said again "no chance, way down the leg side" again, clucking disapprovingly at Sreesanth's huge appeal and saying Dhoni was moving down the leg side.  Clueless, when a fast bowler is bowling, when the ball cuts even, even if it would be at or above off stump, the take would be
well down the leg side.  Then when the replay showed it slamming into top of leg stump, neither of the comms said a word.  In Durban the comms replayed the Zaheer lbw and the AB lbw (which seems very similar to this one) about 20 times it seemed, complaining about the bad umpiring and how South Africa was badly hurt by the lack of UDRS.  This time, it wasn't replayed once while I was watching, and there were no comments on how India could have used the UDRS here; such biased commentary takes the fun out of watching. 

That was that.  Kallis was greatly troubled by Ishant who bowled very well in two spells -- hit him several times and beat the bat many times, but no edge.  Kallis batted very well, and was well supported by the underrated Prince. But fundamentally, the Indian bowling failed to ask enough questions of the South African batsmen and a game that could have been won may have been lost.  Brilliant sunshine bathed beautiful Newlands for the last hour and a half, and Indian hopes vanished as quickly as the dark clouds that had hung over the pitch all day.

I had opined that if India could dismiss the big 3 (Amla, Kallis and deVilliers) twice each for 300 totals runs (6 dismissals) they would win.  Right now the tally is 166 runs for 2 dismissals (Kallis 81*).  India are still in with a chance.  The new ball is just 6 overs away, and there will be some life early.  If we can get Kallis early and get a couple more wickets with the new ball, then we can dismiss South Africa for under 350, which will get us back in the game -- for that Zaheer will need to bowl as he can, not like the shambling stiff slug we saw today.  Right now RSA is looking at 400+ and batting India out of the game.  Should be an absorbing morning's play!

Bharat

South Africa pull ahead at tea as India waste conditions

The conditions were helpful were pace bowling and Dhoni inserted the opposition.  Throughout the day the ball didn't really swing consistently.  A few balls did, but not as many as would be expected. Anyway, things started well -- order was restored when Zaheer Khan got his bunny Smith early -- again if you look at the ball he got out on, it would look like a straight ball that was angling in.  But it was set up by a few away swingers that beat Smith.  But generally, in the first spell the Indians struggled to find the right lengths.  Right
when things were settling down, off they went.


After the first resumption, Ishant Sharma got Petersen off a ball that seamed a touch away outside off that he tried to drive.  That was one of the few good balls that Ishant bowled that threatened to take a wicket.  Generally, Ishant figures are deceiving because he bowled a little too short and outside off.  He got a fair amount of steepling bounce, but most of the time the batsmen let the ball pass through. And at the second break for rain, it was 61/2 -- India hadn't bowled anywhere near as well as they could have but it wasn't as good as it could have been.


When they came out, Amla was the man in a hurry.  Zaheer looked extremely stiff and uninterested when he came back ambling up to the wicket.  Trying for swing he overpitched and served up 3 juicy half volleys that Amla dispatched gratefully.  Sreesanth also pushed it up as well -- it was almost as though the Indians felt that they had to just put it up and wickets would come.  There was none of the "come at the batsmen all the time" attitude that won us the game at Durban.


Anyway, the man who pulled us back was Sreesanth -- figures can lie, he went for 13 in that over, but it was actually a good over. Amla hooked him for six of a very good bouncer that Amla was lucky to keep down.  Next ball edged through gully in the air off the leading edge. Then a genuine nick that flew short of the vacant 3rd slip and another bouncer that was well hooked for a single.  Zak bowled his one good over where he beat Amla twice, but generally he was extremely poor. And then India got a bit of luck -- Amla pulled a long hop and just hit poorly and hit it down Pujara's throat.  That was a huge relief for India -- Amla was taking the game away from India, but still hooking with two men on the fence was not a high percentage shot. Amla seems to be a man in a hurry -- what happened to the patient man we saw in India.  I think -- as an opposition fan -- I prefer this Amla.  This man gives you a lot of chances.


The next session will be key.  At 124/3 South Africa is definitely ahead.  90/5 would have been the par score had India bowled well. Dhoni will be hugely disappointed in the effort of his quicks -- particularly Zaheer Khan.  We also have a long session coming up, and Harbhajan will be key as he will need to bottle up one end.

However, the conditions are still tough for batting and an early wicket could open it up.  The pacers need to really go at the opposition the way they did at Durban Unless we run through the opposition here, the strategy surely would be for Harbhajan to keep one end tight -- in Durban he bowled 13 overs for 25 runs which built up the stranglehold on South Africa on the 4th morning.  deVilliers -- who has motored to 14 without any real effort -- will be important as he can make Harbhajan go for over 4 an over -- so if Bhajji can keep it under 3 an over, that will be crucial.  Need to keep the singles down. 

Bharat

Yuvraj Singh in same list as Mohammad Ali & Michael Jordan!

Like most boys,  as a youngster Yuvraj would doubtless have fantasized
about reaching the very pinnacle of sports, and being mentioned in the
same breath as the two most famous athletes in the world, Ali &
Jordan.  Unlike, 99.99% of the population, he actually had enough
talent, training, and opportunities to make this a remote possibility,
unlike the rest of us mere mortals.

Well his prayers have been answered.  Yuvraj now is on a top 10 list
that includes not only Ali & Jordan, but other sporting giants like
Nick Faldo and Jose Marinho;  Kevin Pietersen is also part of the
list.

Unfortunately for Yuvraj, the list isn't "greatest sports figures
ever" but "greatest sports egos ever."  But, at least now the man can
say he was on the same list as Ali & Jordan -- not many others can :)

http://www.rediff.com/cricket/report/yuvraj-in-british-newspapers-top...

Bharat

Two Great Tests to start of the New Year

The battle between #1 & #2 reaches its climax with the Newlands Test starting Jan 2 -- probably the most beautiful cricket ground in the world.  South Africa's plan of creating pitches that helped pacers backfired -- on average pitches the gap between the world-class Protea attack and the ahem.. less than world class Indian attack would be large.  Make the pitch bouncy, throw in a dash of spicy conditions, and suddenly the Indian bowlers also become really menacing -- to some extent, the helpful conditions may have contributed to the inordinate number of play and misses by the Indians.  How knows -- it is purely hypothetical, but India may be a fit Zaheer and a won toss at Centurion away from a 1-0 scoreboard.  Anyway, Newlands should be more balanced -- hopefully not a batting beauty, though rain may make batting on D1 difficult.  Whoever wins may insert, try to blast out the opposition, and consolidate, though if India go in with two seamers and Ojha replacing Sreesanth, they may bat upon winning the toss.  Anyway, set your clocks for 3:30am EST for must watch TV!

Meanwhile Down Under, Australia face an uncertain future.  The great -- and I don't toss that appellation around loosely -- Ricky Ponting may have played his last Test; though for my money, I'd want him as a player but not skipper. It is not impossible that freed of the cares of captaincy, he will rediscover his passion for the game, and become the super bat he was once more.  From an Indian perspective, Ganguly did it, and he wasn't that good to begin with.  Anyway, despite all that is written about how dominating England has been, this series (if we are going to be hypothetical) is probably a Cook wicket at the first Test away from 2-2 and an edge-of-the-seat scoreline.  I think Australia will surprise England, in much the way England surprised Australia at the MCG -- though the old hand Flower may be able to keep his boys on even keel.  This being the SCG, spin will play a role, and I'll have a Swann over a Beer please.

Either way, it will be compelling watching.

Bharat